from The Executive Software Team
August 06, 1999

A number of prominent analysts, including those of International Data
Corporation, are predicting another major shift in corporate computing:
Applications run on servers, accessed by "thin clients" through Web
browsers.

Some of you may have experienced the same deja' vu I did: Didn't we just go
through this? 
A few years ago, the Network Computer, a simple "information appliance"
which didn't support much more than a browser, was being touted as the
replacement for the PC.  The brainchild of Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, the
Network Computer would access and run all applications on central servers,
reducing the ballooning Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) associated with
maintaining hundreds or thousands of PCs.  The Network Computer failed to
take over, however, due in no small part to the fact that PC prices shortly
thereafter dropped through the floor.  Additionally, most corporations
weren't quite up to the challenge of changing over their entire computing
platforms when what they did have was working.

At that time, many of us who have been around since before the
business-model PC-computing environment were making jokes about the return
of the mainframe/dumb-terminal scenario.

But once again, this paradigm is rising, this time being driven by a new
type of business: Application Service Providers, or ASPs.  IDC is predicting
that the ASP market will grow 91% annually to become a $2 billion market by
the year 2003.  Basically, an Application Service Provider rents or leases
certain applications to a business, then accesses and uses them over the
Web.  The ASP provides the servers and the storage, and takes care of
updating applications as well.  Providing that the bandwidth is there (and
this is a big point of contention among the naysayers), this solution could
drastically reduce TCO.  Unlike the Network Computer scenario, existing
hardware can be utilized, there is no need to shift operating systems, and
no need to re-train users on new applications.  In fact, since all that's
actually being run at the client end is a browser, some of those older PCs
can be brought out of storage, dusted off, and put to use.  You no longer
need to spend thousands of hours installing and stabilizing application
upgrades, either, and the help-desk calls will drastically reduce.

Of course, besides the bandwidth issue, there is one other that would have
to be solved, that of security.  If ASPs are going to be storing corporate
data, and if that data is going to be transmitted over phone lines, ASPs
will have to do some heavy convincing that that data will be safe.

Lest this new model be seen as just more media hype fueled by PR agencies on
behalf of a few well-funded startups, note that the first ASP Industry
Consortium was announced at last May's Networld + Interop trade show in Las
Vegas.  The founders included AT&T, Cisco Systems, Citrix Systems, Compaq,
GTE, IBM, Sun Microsystems, and a number of other very heavy-hitters. 

Another version of this model has been around for a number of years, that of
applications being run on central servers and accessed through corporate
intranets.  Citrix as well as a number of other companies provide solutions
along this line, and Microsoft includes in its Windows NT line its Terminal
Server for the express purpose of supporting this type of environment.

 Could another shift be in the works?  Stay tuned.

@Macarlo, Inc.
@Macarlo's Shareware & Web
OS/2
Java Lobby Member
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